The Michigan cannabis market : A high-level overview

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September 24, 2020
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Introduction

This report provides a high-level overview of the Michigan Adult Use and Medical cannabis markets, exploring various sales and market trends from this year. All of the data in this report can be accessed in our free market intelligence tool, Insights Pulse. To explore market reads for Michigan and other legal cannabis markets further, sign up for a free Insights Pulse account.

Executive summary

Since the beginning of 2020, Michigan’s adult use and medical cannabis sales have skyrocketed. In the first eight months of 2020, Michigan’s adult use and medical markets brought in $281.2M and $313.7M, respectively, for a total of $595M in cannabis sales. In addition, adult use cannabis sales have grown 566% between January 2020 and August 2020 from $9.8M to $65.5M. The state is also unique among other U.S. markets with the largest average basket sizes so far this year, at $84.59 per basket. Insights Pulse allows members of the cannabis industry to track Michigan’s market growth, measure brand performance, and better prepare operations based on market changes. To learn more about how Headset can help you stay better informed about Michigan and other markets, sign up for a demo.

Methodology

Data for this report comes from real-time sales reporting by participating cannabis retailers via their point-of-sale systems, which are linked to Headset’s business analytics software. Sales data is cross-referenced with our catalog of over 500,000 products to provide detailed information on market trends. Headset’s data is very reliable, as it comes direct from our partner retailers. However, the potential does exist for misreporting in the instance of duplicates, incorrectly classified products, inaccurate entry of products into point-of-sale systems, or even simple human error at the point of purchase. Thus, there is a slight margin of error to consider.

Cannabis sales by state

CANNABIS SALES BY STATE 2020 YTD

Monthly cannabis sales by state

By breaking down the sales by month, we can see just how quickly Michigan’s market has grown in 2020 and how it compares to more mature markets. Michigancannabis sales started the year behind other states included in our Insights platform, but quickly surpassed Nevada by March and later Oregon in July. Michigan might surpass Washington next, with Michigan’s August sales of $121.1M nearly $5M short of Washington’s sales of $125.7M. If this growth continues, Michigan is on pace to surpass Oregon, if not also Washington, in total annual cannabis sales before the end of the year.

Total monthly cannabis sales in Michigan

MICHIGAN TOTAL MONTHLY CANNABIS SALES 2020 YTD

Looking specifically at Michigan’s Adult Use and Medical sales by month, we see a shift in which of the two portions of the market contributes most to total sales. Between January and June, Medical sales accounted for a majority of Michigan’s total cannabis sales. However, Adult Use sales growth swiftly outpaced that of Medical sales and Adult Use sales ultimately took the lead. It does not appear that this trend will reverse and Adult Use may continue to gross more sales than Medical.

Cannabis sales growth

CANNABIS SALES MONTH OVER MONTH GROWTH

This graph displays month over month growth of cannabis sales, which can help us predict future growth and compare growth rates between various markets. Here we see how quickly Michigan’s Adult Use sales grew in comparison to Michigan’s Medical sales with substantially higher month over month growth throughout the year so far. Growth in both Medical and Adult Use sales is slowing down slightly, indicating that the market is heading towards a more stable position. Despite Oregon’s fantastic growth this year, Michigan’s Adult Use still experienced significantly larger month over month growth in each month of 2020 so far.

Category market share by state

CATEGORY MARKET SHARE BY STATE 2020 YTD

By comparing category share across markets for this year we can uncover not only the similarities between markets, but also where they are unique. Looking at Michigan we see that its market has the second highest share of both Vapor Pens (19.1%) and Edibles (13.6%), nearly double that of Washington’s lowest Edible share(7.6%). We also see Pre-Roll and Concentrate shares on the relatively lower side and Flower shares in the middle of the pack.

Category market share in Michigan

MICHIGAN CATEGORY MARKET SHARE BY MONTH

Focusing in on Michigan’s category market share by month provides some insight into consumer trends. Flower has gained significant market share since January, and although we have seen this trend in other states amid the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase in Flower market share is rare in new markets. What we’ve typically observed in previous new markets is actually a decrease in market share over time. Vapor Pens and Edibles, on the other hand, have lost market share since the beginning of the year.

Average basket size by state

AVERAGE BASKET SIZE BY STATE 2020 YTD

Here Michigan stands out among other U.S. cannabis markets with the largest average basket size so far this year at $84.58. That is 2.6x larger than Washington’s average basket size, which is the smallest basket of any state.

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Retailer Specifics
Brand Specifics
Category Data
Basket Trends and Analysis
Top Selling Products
Purchasing Patterns
Buying Cycles
Demographic Trends
Segment Analysis
Fastest Growing Segments
New Brands and Products
Sales Analysis
Sales by Weight
Product Profitability

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